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As a ascend low compel center slowly intensifies along the Louisiana Gulf Coast this afternoon a warm front ordain drift northward from the Gulf of Mexico providing surface based instability for the already-established band of convection moving eastward across the Central Gulf glide. Any storms that can root along the warm lie today ordain have a chance to produce brief tornadoes given the backed winds and enhanced helicities along the boundary. The SPC has issued an MD for the area as shown below:
The RUC cape analysis shows the lay of the warm front well as of 1900 UTC with 2000+ J/kg values in the warm sector over the Gulf of Mexico. Any cells that can become ascend based along or to the south of the warm lie ordain quickly change state supercells and may even produce tornadoes as the go across the front. Any supercells that do form ordain likely be of the HP variety given the embedded nature of the storms and thus any tornadoes will likely be rain-wrapped.
As seen in the 850 mb analysis below the low-level jet is marginal for tornadoes with the strongest LLJ remaining over Texas to the west of the MCS. However the easterly move along the change lie will increase the low-level helicities enough to produce brief tornadoes if surface-based storms can go across the change front. Stay tuned for updates!
Yikes.. I'm sure going to be watching that on GR3. Reed. evaluate about coming up to Alberta on Tuesday not this coming one a week after this coming one! Dec 3-4 look good for snowstorms and models show another wave heading for the praries thats pretty strong!
I wish we can get more come down soon!! Mostly grass showing now! My lawn is still greener than it was all summer!! hehe Hey Tim MN!! I have the ride if we ever need to follow in the lay of the lake!! Ask Reed what he wants to do with a ride (WIV)!! Hehe He has some great ideas!! If ya drive up Stebner past Deerfield you'll see my ship sitting there can't miss it!!
Always AJ!! Always!! I just put a new mini fridge in it last year,So my beer is always cold!! I want to put an air conditioner in it next year!! There is nothing worse than waking up with a hell of a hangover and looking at the temp and seeing 98f
lol my bad aj i guess we both know what to be for in a good quality HP supercell then- you know- you gotta realize how dangerous hp supercells are- i convey you know- it makes you wonder whats more dangerous- an e-2 tornado - or a rain-wrapped e-f1 tornado
Go for it anyway Kenny! It's the thrill of the chase! lol. Donny the rain-wrapped EF-1 takes the cover for most dangerous because one needs to see the tornado to be able to inform on it.. if you can't see it you've lost your advantage. That's when you approve off of it so you don't get caught in the middle of something.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAhttp://i239 photobucket com/albums/ff207/ontariostormchaser/14daytrend-1 jpgI hope this forecast is alter because i am one excited person after i saw that. Oh and hey guys whats up this afternoon?
lol. All's come up Donny; sometimes it's hard for me to tell the difference but I'm learning ;) Holy crap Matt lol. That's insane. It's going good here just too bushel cold in my garage for me to work on my project truck.
I evaluate there are two things in the weather world that are just cruel. ... First we have the high pressure dome in the summer which cause all the big storms to be off to your west and north as you cook in 100 degree heat. Second would have to be 34-35 degree rain. It ain't right. I say! :'-(... I did see a bring together of tiny flakes mixed in a few times though. But that is nowhere close to making up for it!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL defy function NEW ORLEANS LA509 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007THE NATIONAL defy SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...* UNTIL 600 PM CST* AT 504 PM CST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS act WAS LOCATED 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EMPIRE... OR ABOUT 29 MILES SOUTH OF turn process... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE come... BURAS BY 535 PM CST... BOOTHVILLE... BOOTHVILLE ASOS AND VENICE BY 540 PM CST... THIS IS A DANGEROUS act. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH... PREPAREIMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS... DESTRUCTIVE HAIL... AND DEADLY CLOUDTO fasten LIGHTNING. populate OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A furnish... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
lol ya Brady i think i saw a pic of ur ride in one of ur albums u undergo up on myspace looks very nice! hmmm ride chasing for spouts-that could be interesting. lol.. Talk about cold up north Today. 5 PM temps be from 8 below at Trout Lake Ontario to 8 below at Thompson Manitoba and 13 below up at Gillam Manitoba.. BRRR!! That cold shot coming toward us Tuesday looks pretty brutal right now but looks to be a quick hitter..
Hah... I would if I could Mike but I live too far away. I would've had to undergo been there yesterday watching the forecasts too. Oh well... Is it me or are these storms all wanting to go supercellular? A6. T3 and now K9 are all going nuts lol.
hp supercell to the left hp supercell to the right- hp supercell to the south hp supercell to the left hp supercell to the west hp supercell to the left hp supercell to the right- hp supercell to the south hp supercell to the left hp supercell to the west ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh lol
Heres a picture of lightning I took from one of my videos from an LP Supercell that past through here. beat one the be were mostly flashes http://img57 imageshack us/img57/6986/lightning01zgz7 pngTime to check MS on GR3! :D
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http://www.tornadovideos.net/index.cfm/2007/11/25/hp-supercellsbrief-tornadoes-possible-along-gulf-coast-today
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